#Bitcoin Halving 2020 will Possibly be the best one so far, for the following reasons: 1) India Lifts #Crypto Ban 2) #Cryptocurrency Trading Becomes Legal in South Korea 3) Stock Markets Are Plummeting, Investors Focus on #Btc
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@VentureBeat: Israel’s markets regulator will propose regulation to ban companies based on bitcoin and other digital currencies from trading on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange https://t.co/tPxvMi1bCD https://t.co/6xfj6GGfGV
The underrated stock survey! Submit your picks for the community to track
Following on the previous tracking post (http://redd.it/i2mmzg) and the highly upvoted request from DJ-Ascii , I've set up this post for another round of underrated or undervalued stock picks. As before, let us know what stock you believe is underrated and a consistent winner that has done well for you, or you believe will do well going forward. In order to make this easier to track please use the following guidelines for submitting.
Only one submission per comment. You can make multiple comments, but please only submit one stock per comment.
Please include at least the ticker and the company name. Feel free to explain why you think this is a good stock.
I'll add these new picks alongside the old survey so as to update you on each portfolio over time. Don't worry about any overlaps. Edit 1: I've compiled everyone who has posted so far, but I'll look out for any final additions tomorrow. The list will then be locked EOD on Friday the 7th of August, and all prices will start from there. Edit 2: All picks have now been locked down and consolidated into the list below. Stocks are sorted in alphabetical order of their company name and the ID corresponds to the approximate order in which they were submitted. The next update will be in 30 days.
Overnight News Heading into Thursday August 27th 2020 (News Yet to be Traded 8:00 PM - 4:00 AM EST)
ADXN ($14.40) Addex and the SIB Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics Receive Innosuisse Grant to Repurpose Potent Dopamine Antagonist Using Computational Modelling
ALGT Allegiant Announces Seven New Routes With Fares As Low As $29* Each Way
TLSA ($3.97) Tiziana Life Sciences CEO Updates Shareholders on its Patent Portfolio, Clinical Pipeline, and Strategy in an Exclusive Interview
LBTYA Liberty Global Publishes Offer Prospectus for Sunrise Communications Group Tender Offer
NSP DEADLINE ALERT: Rigrodsky & Long, P.A. Reminds Shareholders Of Insperity Of Upcoming Deadline
CGG ($1.88) Adds Second Azimuth to Northern Viking Graben Multi-Client Survey
UAA ($9.88) Under Armour Sued By UCLA Over $280M Sponsorship Contract Breach
PHG Philips to expand its image-guided therapy devices portfolio through acquisition of Intact Vascular
CCC Clarivate Announces Appointment of Stefano Maestri as Chief Technology Officer
RDY Dr. Reddy's Laboratories announces the launch of Penicillamine Capsules USP, 250 mg in the U.S. Market
End of Day and After Hours News Heading into Thursday August 27th 2020 (News Traded 4:00 PM - 8:00 PM EST)
ABT ($103.19) Abbott's Fast, $5, 15-Minute, Easy-to-Use COVID-19 Antigen Test Receives FDA Emergency Use Authorization; Mobile App Displays Test Results to Help Our Return to Daily Life; Ramping Production to 50 Million Tests a MonthNSP DEADLINE ALERT: Rigrodsky & Long, P.A. Reminds Shareholders Of Insperity, Inc. Of Upcoming Deadline
CLVS ($4.96) FDA Approves FoundationOne® Liquid CDx to Serve as Rubraca® Companion Diagnostic to Identify Eligible Patients with BRCA1/2-Mutant, Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer
DSS ($6,27) Interview to Air on Bloomberg International on the RedChip Money Report
AMC ($5.60) AMC ready to open another 170 theaters for weekend
NTAP NetApp Stock Spikes After Earnings Crush Estimates
RIOT ($3.41) Riot buys more bitcoin miners, sees hashing capacity over 2 EH/s next year
FE FirstEnergy Utility Crews Mobilize to Assist Hurricane Laura Power Restoration Efforts in Texas
MESO Mesoblast Reports Substantial Operational Progress and Financial Results for the Year Ended June 30, 2020
GME GameStop Announces Second Quarter Fiscal 2020 Earnings Release Date
SPLK Splunk Slides as Revenues Miss Amid Business Model Shift
MSFT Microsoft Brings Back Halo Veteran to Get Delayed Game Back on Track
ET ($6.46) Army Corps seeks reversal of Dakota Access pipeline ruling
[Spoilers S7] Here's what we know about the state of Earth before the bombs
Here's a compiled list of what Earth was like pre-apocalypse using details from the show. Jason Rothenberg has said if the prequel gets greenlit, he wants to implement a lot of flashbacks LOST style. These flashbacks may probably include references to the following:
In Monty's video message he said: "After sucking the Earth dry of oil, they went looking for another planet to tap." [Episode 5x13]
This is presumably why Eligius I (unmanned), II (manned), and IV (prison labor) was sent to asteroids to mine for hythylodium, an incredibly efficient energy source. Hythylodium was used to power the Eligius III and IV missions. [Episode 5x03]
Other energy alternatives are used, such as solar energy (the field of solar panels Jaha and Murphy see in 2x14). And in 6x04, Ryker tells Raven the propellant they use for the motorcycles is "ethanol distilled from Earth corn."
During Josephine's flashback in Boston, a man walks into a diner holding a mask, brushing dust off his shoulders. Josephine's friend also says "It's really dusty outside." You can see multiple people in the diner wearing masks around their neck. [Episode 6x07]
During Josephine's flashback, the guy that commits suicide mentions that she posted about going to a water-rationing protest. [Episode 6x07]
Gabriel says his mother's water was cut off in Colombia so the rich could water their lawns. [Episode 7x10]
On Callie's TV, the news headlines says "Yosemite National Park Burns". [Screenshot] Another headline says: "Deadly Heat Wave". [Screenshot] You can also hear the newscaster mention "above 110 degrees." [Episode 7x08]
On Callie's TV, a headline says "Russian Ankovirus Spreads". [Screenshot] The newscaster mentions the US has declared a public health alert. [Episode 7x08]
Becca says ALIE intends to kill 6.5 billion people to solve overpopulation . She's not trying to kill 100% of the population. [Episode 3x16]
On Callie's TV, a headline says "World's 11 Billionth Child Born". [Screenshot][Episode 7x08]
This is abundant when we look at the technologies developed by just Becca and Eligius, such as large space ships, cryopods, sonic drills, brain chips, ALIE, nightblood, etc.
We also see hologram technology. In 2x16, Jaha first meets ALIE in hologram form. In 7x08, we see it can be used as a telecommunication device when Callie speaks to her father and brother.
On Callie's TV, we see a headline "first human brain transplant successfully performed in Bangalore". [Screenshot] Another headline says "Dubai's Alpha Centauri Group debuts first orbital hotel". [Screenshot][Episode 7x08]
Becca Franko, The Tech Celebrity
She went to Harvard when she was 10 years old. [Episode 7x08]
She started making tech for Eligius at 18 years old. [Episode 6x01]
She owned her own company. We don't know the name of it but we do know it's corporate logo is an infinity sign and its motto is "Seek Higher Things".
People idolized her. The newscaster on Callie's TV said she had "legions of devotees". In 6x07, Josephine had a magazine with Becca featured on the cover. In 7x08, Reese said "Don't mind my sister. She once dressed as you for Halloween."
She owned her own television network. The channel that Callie was watching on her TV has the infinity sign as its network logo. [Screenshot] The newscaster said "The reclusive billionaire and owner of this network made her last public appearance".
On Callie's TV, a headline says "Stock Market Headed For A ..." and it's cut off. [Screenshot] There's most likely a recession going on and stock markets are crashing. You can also see bitcoin (BTC) is worth 4563.44 (half of what it is today). [Screenshot] Also, on top of the pandemic, huge advancements in AI and technology, are most likely disrupting businesses and employment as well. [Episode 7x08]
On Callie's TV, we see a headline "Wyoming joins 32 other states in legalizing the recreational use of psilocybin mushrooms". Shrooms. [Screenshot]
Battles in U.S. Cities
The Battle of San Francisco was an armed conflict that Shaw recalls watching on TV as a child. During Diyoza's time in the military, she was one of the soldiers helping the evacuation of thousands of refugees. [Episode 5x07]
Resistance Groups & Terrorism
The United Liberation Army (ULA), was a terrorist group dedicated to fighting against the corrupt government that Diyoza became a part of after the military. The ULA was involved in many terror attacks, including an attack on the 4th of July (which, according to news articles, they took credit for) and a suspected metro suicide bombing in Washington D.C., killing 19 civilians. [Screenshot][Episode 5x04]
Corrupt U.S. Government
Diyoza says to Clarke "When the fascist government tried to take my home, I wanted blood too." [Episode 5x03]
When Reese mentions Callie dropping out of MIT, she says "Refusing to take part in fascistic regimes is my thing." [Episode 7x08]
On Callie's TV, the newscaster says "... when riot police, on orders from the Wallace Administration, moved in to clear the extreme environmental group known as The Tree Crew." [Episode 7x08] > Callie: "Extreme? What a joke. We were there peacefully. They're the extreme ones." Lucy: "Don't they know they're defending a system that hurts people like them?" Callie: People want to believe their leaders are telling the truth, which is why we need to get back there and continue exposing their lies.
The US president at the time of the bombs is a Wallace. In Season 2, Dante says "I love you Cage, and there's been a Wallace in this office since the bombs but if I find out that you're lying there won't be one after me". So most likely the Wallace administration and their family was corrupt. They easily decided to do away with democracy in order to have complete control in Mount Weather. [Episode 2x06]
Russell says to Diyoza in 6x03 "Your face is in our history books next to Hitler and Bin Laden". Eligius took part in federal prison labor, so most likely they had close ties with the government. Fascist governments like to vilify their opponents through propaganda. Even though Diyoza was indeed causing violence, she was probably also used as a scapegoat by the government since she was against them. Even Gabriel said in 7x04, "She was a freedom fighter, not a terrorist".
On Callie's TV, the newscaster says "The 11 billionth baby was born in the Wayne County Internment Camp". Internment camps/concentration camps are "camps where persons are confined, usually without hearings and typically under harsh conditions, often as a result of their membership in a group which the government has identified as dangerous or undesirable." [Source]
On Callie's TV, a headline says "Congress's negotiations on economic relief funds at an impasse amidst violent riots ..." [Screenshot]
Easy For Cults to Thrive
In 7x10, Gabriel says to Bill Cadogan "Earth was pretty terrible. But it's good for the cult business, am I right?"
According to this article, Bill grew up in poverty. And Jaha mentioned in 4x03 that Bill's father beat him frequently. Bill, a millennial, says in 7x10 that his first job was flipping burgers, dreaming of the day he'd escape. "There must be more to life than politics, the dying ecosystem, the memes."
Callie says Bill's a vulture capitalist who "traded his precious credibility to become a prophet of doom". She also called him a cultural artifact thief. He found and stole the Anomaly stone from Machu Picchu and in 2042, he started studying it. [Episode 7x08]
It's unknown when Bill founded the Second Dawn, but we know a news article was written about them in 2042, saying that only those with lots of money could "unlock the twelve seals" since it required payments of over $10 million to the cult. [Episode 4x03]
That's what I got. If you spotted anything else from the show, feel free to share! :)
I'm kinda ok with MCO -> CRO Swap; a indepth personal view
EDIT: this post https://www.reddit.com/Crypto_com/comments/i2yhuz/open_letter_to_kris_from_one_of_cdcs_biggest/ from u/CryptoMines expresses my sentiments and concerns better than I could ever put into words myself. I'd say read his/her post instead. Very long post ahead, but TL;DR, I actually see this swap as a positive change, despite fearing for what it may do to my portofolio, and having mixed feelings about its consequences on CDC reputation.Before I start, for the sake of context and bias, here's my personal situation as a CDC user:
I'm just a average Joe, with a 500 MCO Jade card. I bough 50 MCO at 5,22€ in September 2019 and staked for Ruby, then bough 440 MCO at 2.47€ in March 2020 and upgraded to Jade. The total amount of MCO I own is currently 515, and everything above the 500 stake is cashback rewards.
I bought MCO exclusively for the card and bonus Earn interest benefits, and had no plans to unstake my MCO. Now with the swap, definetly won't unstake.
The MCO -> CRO conversion rates increased the fiat value of my MCO in about 1000€.
I own a decent amount of CRO, wich I bought at ~0,031€ in March 2020.
The country where I live is crypto friendly and completely crypto-tax free; I only have to pay income tax if I deposit a certain threshold of fiat in my bank.
Take all these factors into account as possible (if not major) influencers or bias on my opinions; both the emotional and economical ones. Call me a fool or a devil's advocate if you want, but keep your torches and pitchforks down. As we say here on Reddit: "Remember the human".----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Like all of you, I woke up to find this anouncement, wich came right the #[email protected] out of nowere, and gives you little to no options. Good or bad, this announcement arrived as basicly a "comply or die" choice. Emotionally, this came as both terrifying and disgusting; but rationally, I cannot blame CDC for it. Because wether we like it or not, CDC is a centralized company, and the MCO tokens were never a stock or legally binding contract; something wich pretty much every crypto company or ICO warns in their T&C and risk warnings. Not to mention the mostly unregulated status of the cryptocurrency and. I'll call this "dishonest" any day, but I cannot see it as a "scammy" since I can't see how they broke any rules or terms. A scammer would take your money/assets away, but CDC is offering you to swap it for another asset wich you can sell right away if you want. And at current price, it is still worth more or less as much fiat as MCO cost at the 5 $/€ wich was more or less the comunity standard used for calculating the card prices. And by that, I mean that the fiat value of 50/500/5000 MCO (as CRO) is actually not far from the 250/2500/25'000 $/€ that the comunity commonly used as standard when calculating the ROI and (under)valuation of MCO. So CDC is at least trying to give us the option to get (some) our money back, and not at a unfair rate. If you happened to buy MCO at a price higher than this, I can't see how that's CDC's fault, just as I don't see anyone blaming Bitcoin or Altcoins for getting them stuck at the top of the 2017 bubble burst. I read many posts in this reddit calling this a "backstab" and "betrayal" of early investors and for the people who "believed in MCO". Emotionally, I share your sentiment.But after thinking it for a while, I'd say this was actually very rewarding for early investors and long term MCO supporters. As CDC clearly sates in the swap rules; nobody is going to lose their card tier or MCO stake benefits (at least not yet), and your stake DOES NOT unstake automatically after 180 days. Actually, so far they never did unstake automatically, you had to manually unstake yourself. With this in mind, everyone who already got their cards, or at least staked MCO to reserve one, basicly got them 3-5 times cheaper than future users; and IMHO, now the $/€ price of cards feels more fair and sustainable compared to their benefits.So in a sense, everyone who supported and believed on the MCO for its utility (i.e. the card and app benefits) has been greatly rewarded with perks that they get to keep, but are now out of reach for a lot of people.Likewise, the people who believed and invested in CRO (for whatever reason), have also been rewarded, as their CRO tokens now have more utility. So either the price of CRO crashes down to around 0.05 $/€, or the people who bought MCO/CRO early or cheap are now massively benefited. But then again, so is everyone who bought or mined Bitcoin in its early days, or invested in Bitcoin at crucial points of its history... how is that unfair? Some people bought Ethereum at 1'400 $ on a mix of hopes/promises that it would continue to rise; it didn't. And even today with DeFi and ETH 2.0 ever closer, it is still far from that price. And I know what some of you are thinking: "The cards aren't avaiable in my country yet, that's why I didn't buy/stake."Well, they weren't avaiable in my country either when I staked 50 MCO. Heck, the cards weren't avaiable in anyones country when MCO started, but many people still bought it and staked it. That's exacly what "early adopter", "long supporter" and "believing in MCO" means. On the other hand, the people who invested on MCO as a speculative asset and decided to HODL and hoard MCO, hoping for its price to moon and then sell MCO at big profit, had their dreams mercilessly crushed by this swap... and good lord, I feel their pain.But this is also where I'll commit the sin of being judgemental, because IMHO, speculating on MCO never made any sense to me; MCO was a utility token, not a value token, so it should not (and could not) ever be worth more than the value of its utility. That's basicly how stablecoins and PAXG are able to stay stable; because nobody will pay more/less than the value of the asset/service they represent. Tough now that I'm looking at the new card stake tiers in CRO, I have to give credit to the MCO hodlers I just now criticised; maybe you were right all along. Unless the price of CRO crashes or corrects, I wich case, I un-rest my case. One thing I'll agree with everyone tough, is that I fell that CDC just suckerpunched it's comunity. Because even if we have no vote on its decisions (wich again, we aren't necessarily entitled to, since they are a privante and centralized business) they should/could have warned that this was in their plans well in advance; if anything to allow those who wouldn't like it to exit this train calmly. Also the CRO stake duration reset. The mandatory reset of your CRO stake for taking advantage of the early swap bonus feels like another gut-punch. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now that we got emotional feelings out of the way, here's my sentiment about how this will affect the overall CDC ecossystem. One common criticism of the sustainability of MCO was that its supply cap could never allow a large number of cards to be issued, and how could CDC keep paying the cashbacks and rebates. On the oposite corner, one of the major criticisms of the sustainability of CRO, was it's ridiculously huge supply cap and inflation caused by the gradual un-freezing and release of more CRO into the system. But now that MCO and CRO became one, it might just have made both issues more sustainable. Now the huge supply cap of CRO makes more sense, as it allows a much larger number of future users to stake for cards (at higher costs, but still). And because most card cashback is small parcels, this large supply also ensures that CDC can keep paying said cashbacks for a long time; especially since it can be semi-renewable trough the trading fees we pay in CRO. Before this, the MCO you got as cashback had no use, other than selling it for fiat or speculate on its price. But CRO can be used, at the very least, to receive a discount on trading fees. And everytime you pay trading fees in CRO or spend CRO on a Syndicate event, some of that CRO goes back to CDC, wich they can use to keep paying the cahsback/rebates. And keep in mind, the technicalities of CRO can be changed, as well as the perks and utilities it can be used for. So even if this current model doesn't fix everything (wich it probably doesn't) it can still be changed to patch problems or expand its use. Another obvious potentially positive outcome of this, is that now CDC only has to focus on 1 token, so it makes it easier to manage and drive its value. People complained that CDC was neglecting MCO over promoting CRO, but now they can focus on both services (cards/exchange) at the same time. Sure, this might not bring much advantage to the common customer, but its probably a major resource saver and optimizer at corporate levels; wich in the long term ultimately benefits its customers. Much like Ethereum is undergoing major changes to ensure its scalability, the crypto companies themselves also have to change to acommodate the growing number of users, especially as the cryptomarket and DeFi are growing and becoming more competitive. Business strategies that were once successfull became obsolete, and exchanges that once held near-monopolies had to adjust to rising competitors. There is no reason why CDC shouldn't keep up with this, or at least try to. Point is, the financial markets, crypto or otherwise, are not a status quo haven. And when something is wrong, something has to be changed, even if it costs. The very rise of cryptocurrencies and blockchain, wich is why we are here in the first place, is a perfect example of this, as it experiments and provides alternatives to legacy/traditional products and technologies. Was this the best solution to its current problems? Is this what will protect us as customers from a potentially unsustainable business model? I have no idea. This change ripped me too from my previous more or less relaxed status quo (the safety of the value of the CRO I bough for cheap), along with CRO late investors wich now probably fear for the devaluation of their CRO. To say nothing of the blow this represents for my trust (and I believe everyone elses trust) on CDC and its public relations. It's not what CDC did, it's how they did it. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Wether you actually bothered to read all I wrote or just skip everything (can't blame you), I'm eager to hear your opinions and whatever criticisms on my opinions you may have. If you just want to vent at me, you are welcome too; now you can raise your pitchforks and torches.
Here is how to play the altcoin game - for newbies & champs
I have been here for many previous altcoin seasons (2013,2017 etc) and wanted to share knowedle. It's a LOOONG article. The evaluation of altcoins (i.e not Bitcoin) is one of the most difficult and profitable exercises. Here I will outline my methodology and thinking but we have to take some things as a given. The first is that the whole market is going up or down with forces that we can't predict or control. Bitcoin is correlated with economic environments, money supply increases, safe havens such as Gold, hype and country regulations. This is an impossible mix to analyze and almost everyone fails at it. That's why you see people valuing Bitcoin from $100 to $500k frequently. Although I am bullish on the prospects of Bitcoin and decentralization and smart contract platforms, this is not the game I will be describing. I am talking about a game where you try to maximize your BTC holdings by investing in altcoins. We win this game even if we are at a loss in fiat currency value. To put it another way:
If you are not bullish in general on cryptocurrencies you have no place in investing or trading cryptocurrencies since it's always a losing proposition to trade in bubbles, a scientifically proven fact. If on the other hand you are then your goal is to grow your portfolio more than you would if holding BTC/ETH for example.
Bitcoin is the big boy
How the market works is not easily identifiable if you haven't graduated from the 2017 crypto university. When there is a bull market everything seems amazingly profitable and things keep going up outgrowing Bitcoin by orders of magnitude and you are a genius. The problem with this is that it only works while Bitcoin is going up a little bit or trades sideways. When it decides to move big then altcoins lose value both on the way up and on the way down. The second part is obvious and proven since all altcoins from 2017 are at a fraction of their BTC value (usually in the range of 80% or more down). Also, when BTC is making a big move upwards everyone exits altcoins to ride the wave. It is possible that the altcoin market behaves as an inversed leveraged ETF with leakage where in a certain period while Bitcoin starts at 10k and ends at 10k for example, altcoins have lost a lot of value because of the above things happening.
We are doing it anyway champ!
OK so we understand the risks and just wanna gambol with our money right? I get it. Why do that? Because finding the ideal scenario and period can be extremely profitable. In 2017 several altcoins went up 40x more than BTC. But again, if you don't chose wisely many of them have gone back to zero (the author has first hand experience in this!), they have been delisted and nobody remembers them. The actual mentality to have is very important and resembles poker and other speculative games: A certain altcoin can go up in value indefinitely but can only lose it's starting investment. Think about it. You either lose 1 metric or gain many many more. Now that sounds amazing but firstly as we said we have the goal to outperform our benchmark (BTC) and secondly that going up in value a lot means that the probability is quite low. There is this notion of Expected Value (EV) that poker players apply in these kind of situations and it goes like that. If you think that a certain coin has a probability let's say 10% to go up 10X and 90% probability it goes to zero it's an even bet. If you think that probability is 11% then it's a good bet, a profitable bet and you should take it. You get the point right? It's not that it can only go 10X or 0X, there is a whole range of probability outcomes that are too mathematical to explain here and it doesn't help so much because nobody can do such analysis with altcoins. See below on how we can approximate it.
How to evaluate altcoins
A range of different things to take into account outlined below will form our decision making. Not a single one of them should dictate 100% of our strategy.
It's all about market cap. Repeat after me. The price of a coin doesn't mean anything. Say it 10 times until you believe it. I can't remember how many times I had conversations with people that were comparing coins using their coin price instead of their market cap. To make this easy to get.
If I decide because the sky is blue to make my coin supply 100 Trillion FoolCoins with a price of $0.001 and there is another WiseCoin with a supply of 100 Million and price of $1 then FoolCoins are more expensive. - Alex Fin's Cap Law
This is done usually in the stock world and it means that each company has some fundamental value that includes it's assets, customers, growth prospects, sector prospects and leadership competence but mostly centered in financial measures such as P/E ratios etc. Valuation is a proper economic discipline by itself taught in universities. OK, now throw everything out of the window!. This kind of analysis is impossible in vague concepts and innovations that are currently cryptocurrencies. Ethereum was frequently priced at the fictional price of gas when all financial systems on earth run on the platform after decades (a bit of exaggeration here). No project is currently profitable enough to justify a valuation multiple that is usually equal to P/E in the thousands or more. As such we need to take other things into account. What I do is included in the list below:
Check Github. You need to make sure there is active development for the platform and it's a very bad sign if the project is either keeping the code closed source or even worse there is simply no development. No projects are "complete".
Check Website. If the website is written in bad English the Chinese google translate type it means that they are not serious enough to produce an unbreakable decentralized project. If you can't write English you can't change the world, period. That's a deal breaker.
Check Team's Linkedin. Numerous projects have either fake Linkedin accounts or the team is comprised mainly by unexperienced employees that are even shown to be working in other companies currently.
Check backers. Projects that have Binance, Coinbase or Silicon Valley VC funds backing them are way more legit but way more overpriced too!
One of my favorite ways to value altcoins that is based on the same principle in the stock market is to look at peers and decide what is the maximum cap it can grow to. As an example you take a second layer Ethereum solution that has an ICO and you want to decide if you will enter or not. You can take a look at other coins that are in the same business and compare their market caps. Thinking that your coin will outperform by a lot the top coins currently is overly optimistic so I usually take a lower valuation as a target price. If the initial offering is directly implying a valuation that is more than that then there is no room to grow according to my analysis and I skip it. Many times this has proven me wrong because it's a game theory problem where if many people think irrationally in a market it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. But since there is opportunity cost involved, in the long run, getting in initial offerings that have a lot of room to grow will pay off as a strategy.
In 2017 the sexiest sector was platforms and then coins including privacy ones. Platforms are obviously still a highly rated sector because everything is being built on them, but privacy is not as hot as it used to be. In 2018 DEXes were all they hype but still people are massively using centralized exchanges. In 2020 Defi is the hottest sector and it includes platforms, oracles and Defi projects. What I am saying is that a project gets extra points if it's a Defi one in 2020 and minus points if it's a payment system that will conquer the world as it was in 2017 because that's old news. This is closely related to the next section.
Needless to say that the crypto market is a worse FOMO type of inexperienced trigger happy yolo investors , much worse than the Robinhood crowd that drove a bankrupt company's stock 1200% after they declared bankruptcy. The result is that there are numerous projects that are basically either vaporware or just so overhyped that their valuation has no connection to reality. Should we avoid those kind of projects? No and I will explain why. There are many very good technically projects that had zero hype potential due to incompetent marketing departments that made them tank. An example (without shilling because I sold out a while back) is Quantum Resistant Ledger. This project has amazing quantum resistant blockchain, the only one running now, has a platform that people can build tokens and messaging systems and other magnificent stuff. Just check how they fared up to now and you will get the point. A project *needs* to have a hype factor because you cannot judge it as normal stocks that you can do value investing like Warren Buffet does where a company will inevitable post sales and profitability numbers and investors will get dividends. Actually the last sentence is the most important: No dividends. Even projects that give you tokens or coins as dividends are not real dividends because if the coin tanks the value of the dividend tanks. This is NOT the case with company stocks where you get dollars even if the company stock tanks. All that being said, I would advice against betting on projects that have a lot of hype but little substance (but that should be obvious!).
How to construct your portfolio
My strategy and philosophy in investing is that risk should be proportional to investment capital. That means that if you are investing 100K in the crypto market your portfolio should be very different than someone investing 1K because 10% annual gains are nothing in the latter while they are very significant in the former. Starting from this principle each individual needs to construct a portfolio according to how much risk he wants to take. I will emphasize two important concepts that play well with what I said. In the first instance of a big portfolio you should concentrate on this mantra: "Diversification is the only free meal in finance". In the case of a small portfolio then this mantra is more important: "Concentrate to create wealth, diversify to maintain wealth". Usually in a big portfolio you would want to hold some big coins such as BTC and ETH to weather the ups and downs explained in previous paragraphs while generating profits and keep progressively smaller parts of your portfolio for riskier investments. Maybe 50% of this portfolio could be big caps and 10% very risky initial offerings. Adapting risk progressively to smaller portfolios makes sense but I think it would be irrational to keep more than 30% of a portfolio no matter what tied to one coin due to the very high risk of bankruptcy.
The altseason is supposedly coming every 3 months. Truth is that nobody can predict it but altcoins can be profitable no matter what. Forget about maximalists who are stuck in their dogmas. Altcoins deliver different value propositions and it makes sense because we are very far from a situation where some project offers everything like Amazon and we wouldn't even want that in the first place since we are talking about decentralization and not a winner takes all and becomes a monster kind of scenario! Some last minute advice:
Stay out of paid telegram/discord pump groups. They are deadly for your wallet.
Avoid jumping on overhyped coins that have pumped massively during the last days without any very important news.
Don't keep coins in obscure exchanges for too long or you will get burned with certainty.
Stop thinking that your coin will 1000x and overtake Bitcoin!
P.S If you find value in reading this and want more weekly consider subscribing to my newsletterhere
News Heading into Thursday July 23rd 2020 NOTE: PLEASE DO NOT YOLO THE VARIOUS TICKERS WITHOUT DOING RESEARCH. THE TIME STAMPS ON THE FOLLOWING ARTICLES MAY BE LATER THAN OTHERS ON THE WEB. THE CREATOR OF THIS THREAD COMPILED THE FOLLOWING IN A QUICK MANNER AND DOES NOT ATTEST TO THE VERACITY OF THE INFORMATION BELOW. YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR VETTING YOUR OWN SOURCES AND DOING YOUR OWN DD.
Senate Republicans, White House near agreement on coronavirus relief package
CNTG ($12.15) CENTOGENE Announces Convenient At-Home Coronavirus Test Solution Now Available in Germany on Online Marketplace
BIOL ($0.45) BIOLASE Announces Closing Of Oversubscribed Rights Offering
INUV ($0.57) Inuvo Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock
DRIO ($7.25) reported 8 new insider (buys) trades to the SEC
ALGN%20today%20announced,for%20Invisalign%20and%20iTero%20doctors.&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;text=The%20goal%20of%20ADAPT%20is,Invisalign%20doctors%20and%20their%20staff) Align Technology Launches the Align Digital and Practice Transformation (ADAPT) Program for Invisalign and iTero Doctors Globally
Montage Resources Divesting Wellhead Gathering Infrastructure for $25 Million, Announces Preliminary Second Quarter 2020 Production Performance, Lowers Full Year 2020 Capital Spending Guidance. Montage Resources trims full-year capex forecast (MR)
Someone posted on here a few days ago asking about forex and forex trading in Kenya, I have gone through the responses and clearly, most people don’t have an idea. It is 3am in the morning and am in a good mood so let me make this post. This will be a comprehensive and lengthy post so grab a pen and paper and sit down. We’ll be here a while. FIRST OF ALL, who am I..? I am a forex trader, in Nairobi, Kenya..i have been actively involved in forex since I found out about it in Feb 2016 when I somehow ended up in a wealth creation seminar (lol) in pride inn Westlands, the one close to Mpaka Rd. Luckily for me, it was not one of those AIM global meetings or I’d be on Facebook selling God knows what those guys sell. I did not take it seriously till August of the same year and I have been active ever since. I don’t teach, mentor or sell a course or signals, I trade my own money. I am also posting from a throwaway account because I don’t want KRA on my ass. What the fuck is forex and forex trading. In simple plain English, forex is like the stock market but for currencies. Stock Market = Shares, forex = currencies. If you want more in-depth explanation, google is your friend. These currencies are pegged on specific countries, united states- dollar, UK- pound, euro zone- euro, Switzerland- Swiss franc, Kenya- Kenya shilling.. you get the point. Now, there are specific events and happenings between these economies that affect the movement and values of the currencies, driving their value (purchasing power up and down). Forex trading exploits these movements to make money. When the value is going up, we buy and vice versa (down –sell) Is forex trading illegal in Kenya? Is it a scam? Illegal, no. scam, no. All the banks in the world do it (KCB made about 4 billion from trading forex in 2019) Have there been scams involving forex in Kenya? Yes. Here is one that happened recently. This one is the most infamous one yet. Best believe that this is not the end of these type of scams because the stupidity, greed and gullibility of human beings is unfathomable. However, by the end of this post, I hope you won’t fall for such silliness. What next how do I make it work..? Am glad you asked. Generally, there are two ways to go about it. One, you teach yourself. This is the equivalent of stealing our dad’s car and hoping that the pedal you hit is the brake and not the accelerator. It is the route I took, it is the most rewarding and a huge ego boost when you finally make it on your own. Typically, this involves scouring the internet for hours upon hours going down rabbit holes, thinking you have made it telling all your friends how you will be a millionaire then losing all your money. Some people do not have the stomach for that. The second route is more practical, structured and smarter. First Learn the basics. There is a free online forex course at www.babypips.com/learn/forex this is merely an introductory course. Basically it is learning the parts of a car before they let you inside the car. Second, start building your strategy. By the time you are done with the babypips, you will have a feel of what the forex market is, what interests you, etc. Tip..Babypips has a lot of garbage. It is good for introductory purposes but not good for much else, pick whatever stick to you or jumps at you the first time. Nonsense like indicators should be ignored. The next step is now the most important. Developing the skill and building your strategy. As a beginner, you want to exhaust your naivety before jumping into the more advanced stuff. Eg can you identify a trend, what is a pair, what is position sizing, what is metatrader 4 and how to operate it, what news is good for a currency, when can I trade, what are the different trading sessions, what is technical analysis, what is market sentiment, what are bullish conditions what is emotion management, how does my psychology affect my trading (more on this later) an I a swing, scalper or day trader etc Mentors and forex courses.. you have probably seen people advertising how they can teach and mentor you on how to trade forex and charging so much money for it. Somehow it seems that these people are focused on the teaching than the trading. Weird, right..? Truth is trading is hard, teaching not quite. A common saying in the industry is “Those who can’t trade, teach” you want to avoid all these gurus on Facebook and Instagram, some are legit but most are not. Sifting the wheat from the chaff is hard but I did that for you. The info is available online on YouTube, telegram channels etc. am not saying not to spend money on a course, if you find a mentor whose style resonates with you and the course is reasonably priced, please, go ahead and buy..it will cut your learning curve in half. People are different. What worked for me might not work for you. Here are some nice YouTube channels to watch. These guys are legit..
After a short period of time, you will be able to sniff out bs teachers with relative ease. You will also discover some of your own and expand the list. Two tips, start with the oldest videos first and whichever of these resonates with you, stick with till the wheels fall off. How long will it take until things start making sense Give yourself time to grow and learn. This is all new to you and you are allowed to make mistakes, to fail and discover yourself. Realistically, depending on the effort you put in, you will not start seeing results until after 6 months. Could take longeshorter so there is no guarantee. Social media, Mentality, Psychology and Books Online, forex trading might not have the best reputation online because it takes hard work and scammers and gurus give it a bad name. However, try to not get sucked into the Instagram trader lifestyle as it is nowhere close to what the reality is. You will not make millions tomorrow or the day after, you might never even make it in this market. But that is the reality of life. Nothing is promised, nothing is guaranteed. Your mentality, beliefs and ego will be challenged in this market. You will learn things that will make you blood boil, you will ask yourself daily, how is this possible, why don’t they teach this in school..bla bla bla..it will be hard but growth is painful, if it wasn’t we’d all be billionaires. Take a break, take a walk, drink a glass of whatever you like or roll one..detox. Chill with your girl (or man) Gradually you will develop mental toughness that will set you up for life. Personally, I sorta ditched religion and picked up stoicism. Whatever works for you. Psychology, this is unfortunately one of the most neglected aspects of your personal development in this journey. Do you believe in yourself? Can you stand by your convictions when everyone is against you? Can you get up every day uncertain of the future? There will be moments where you will question yourself, am I even doing the right thing? the right way? It is normal and essential for your growth. People who played competitive sports have a natural advantage here. Remember the game is first won in your head then on the pitch. Books: ironically, books that helped me the most were the mindset books, Think and grow rich, trading for a living, 4 hour work week, the monk who sold his Ferrari..just google mindset and psychology books, most trading books are garbage. Watch and listen to people who have made it in the investing business. Ray Dalio, warren, Bill Ackman and Carl Icahn. This is turning out to be lengthier than I anticipated so I’ll try to be brief for the remaining parts. Brokers You will need to open up an account with a broker. Get a broker who is regulated. Australian ones (IC Market and Pepperstone) are both legit, reliable and regulated. Do your research. I’d avoid local ones because I’ve heard stories of wide spreads and liquidity problems. International brokers have never failed me. There are plenty brokers, there is no one size fits all recommendation. If it ain’t broke..don’t fix it. Money transfer. All brokers accept wire transfers, you might need to call your bank to authorize that, avoid Equity bank. Stanchart and Stanbic are alright. Large withdrawals $10k+ you will have to call them prior. Get Skrill and Neteller if you don’t like banks like me, set up a Bitcoin wallet for faster withdrawals, (Payoneer and Paypal are accepted by some brokers, just check with them.) How much money can I make..? I hate this question because people have perceived ceilings of income in their minds, eg 1 million ksh is too much to make per month or 10,000ksh is too little. Instead, work backwards. What % return did I make this month/ on this trade. Safaricom made 19.5% last year, if you make 20% you have outperformed them. If you reach of consistency where you can make x% per month on whatever money you have, then there are no limits to how much you can make. How much money do I need to start with..? Zero. You have all the resources above, go forth. There are brokers who provide free bonuses and withdraw-able profits. However, to make a fulltime income you will need some serious cash. Generally, 50,000 kes. You can start lower or higher but if you need say 20k to live comfortably and that is a 10% return per month, then you can do the math on how big your account should be. Of course things like compound interest come into play but that is dependent on your skill level. I have seen people do spectacular things with very little funds. Taxes..? Talk to a lawyer or an accountant. I am neither. Family? Friends? Unfortunately, people will not understand why you spend hundreds of hours watching strangers on the internet so it is best to keep it from them. Eventually you will make it work and they will come to your corner talking about how they always knew you’d make it. The journey will be lonely, make some trading buddies along the way. You’d be surprised at how easy it is when people are united by their circumstances (and stupidity) I have guys who are my bros from South Africa and Lebanon who I have never met but we came up together and are now homies. Join forums, ask questions and grow. That is the only way to learn. Ideally, a group of 5-10 friends committed to learning and growth is the best model. Pushing each other to grow and discovering together. Forex is real and you can do amazing things with it. It is not a get rich quick scheme. If you want a quick guaranteed income, get a job. And now it is 5am, fuck. This is oversimplified and leaves out many many aspects. Happy to answer any questions.
Hello from the UK. I will make this short and sweet,hopefully. So I want to know if anyone feels the same way. Cutting a long story short and this does make me cringe a little saying this I am a full time 'trader' of sorts. I am not a day trader I swing trade tech stocks and invest heavily in renewable energy, the implementation of 5G automation electric/self driveing cars, bio tech. That's my thing. I would like to say my portfolio was built on blood sweat and tiers but I would be lieing, I rid the bitcoin bull from 2014 in a massive way. Then got lucky again investing in tech mainly Amazon and telsa the last week few months have been mega! So getting to my point now I am 25, i have a top end car range rover over finch, my apartment Is paid for I have around 11k a month coming in from swing trades and property rentals. But all I seem to find my self doing is drinking! I wake up walk to the local post office buy all the main papers, the times financial times and newyork post. I will scan though thease for at least 2 hours ( I think you can get ahead on swing trades on hand fulls of information in the columns) then I spend a an hour on reddit. Then by 2 o'clock I am usually in the pub watching price action on my phone checking my fill orders and sell orders. I feel like I just know the market and what's cheap and what's over bought 6 times out of 10 I tend to be right I play with tight stops and dont just hover over one stock all day! (Sorry about the poor spelling and grammar I am not really focusing to much busy checking stocks) so like I said I can be in the pub at 2 I will guzzle around 4 pint go home check reddit market news. Then I seem to sleep thats my life. Every one thinks I am a drug dealer even family I cannit bare to tell anyone one what I do for a living it makes me feel uncomfortable. Then you do tell people you always feel that somone has to one up with you or your talking to the future warren buffet that no idea how the world of investing, finance or even how the stock market works. I dont know what this post was ment to be maybe a rant, maybe just me talking to my self does any one els feel the same way.
re: July 15 Twitter hack - what would you have done instead?
Background to what happened today at Twitter: https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/jgxd3d/twitter-insider-access-panel-account-hacks-biden-uber-bezos Essentially, someone or some group gained access to Twitter internal tools and was able to post on large, verified accounts like that of Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Joe Biden, and official company Twitter accounts like that of Apple and Uber. They mostly posted the same message - "send us some bitcoin and we'll send you 2x the amount you sent us because we are feeling generous." Of course, they dont send back 2x. They made off with around $100k worth of bitcoin. Imagine you had that access - you could post on Musk's or Biden's or some Kardashian's Twitter - what would you do with this power? Assuming you had maybe an hour or two to post because Twitter stopped all verified accounts from posting and all that? For example, many people suggested something with the stock market (though this occurred after markets closed in the US, the assumption was they would do it during market hours). Others said that this is the quickest way to get caught. I'm not convinced you would get caught if you trade super high volume stuff - anyone know if I'm off base here? Closest example is all the airline-related trading activity on 9/11, but those were all found to be unrelated. I'm wondering how FINRA or SEC (not sure which) would pin you as "insider trading" or something. So, reader: What would you do if you had access to post with these accounts? What would you do to make the most money (and get away with it), and what would you do to cause the most chaos?
They're not just a POS business, they are building infrastructure to be the financial institution of a tech-driven world. They have their own Venture Capital firm that gives out loans to SMBs and screens their historical transactions to gauge the risk and interest rates. Capital can be accessed the same business day instead of going formally to a bank with your papers and giving out a standardized interest rate to all businesses and waiting so many days for capital. The FDIC recently approved Square's bank charter application. All this to me suggests regulation accepting the grand network of financial tools in a world that has been skewing more and more towards technology.They're working on making it a multi-faceted company that will meet all of your business needs. e.g. small loans, payment processing, payroll, restaurant logistics; the all-in-one ecosystem that is intuitive and easy to use and impossible to leave. Earnings per share this year = 950% Earnings growth nxt yr = 245% Future ROE = 63.5%; The return on equity is a measure of the profitability of a business in relation to the equity.SQ became profitable this year for the first time. Square has two ecosystems: 1- POS 2- Cash App Imagine combining both, using cash app to purchase stocks, receive dividends, receive tips, receive pay check. Why invest in SQ? This company can takeover the world literally with internet currencies. During these times of printing so much money can devalue our currency so much. The collapse of fiat currency is almost impossible but if ever something like that happens; SQ will be a world champion compared to all its financial peers. https://preview.redd.it/1gapxa0qcpd51.png?width=1142&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d51010439b1523a46e52b8915adfbc870d84f40 As we can see, Bitcoin revenue segment has been going up huge and will be going higher because of covid19. Yes, transactions will fall because less consumer spending but BTC will rise ( as seen in the past days) therefore SQ is in a good position because of recessions. This is why I believe there is a good chance that SQ will post a profit this Q. Revenue has been growing immensely every Q. https://preview.redd.it/t13le2prcpd51.png?width=1155&format=png&auto=webp&s=35376a7d989867438758b9e8691698c2ca73feae https://preview.redd.it/47n5pegtcpd51.png?width=913&format=png&auto=webp&s=00aa7ee5f0baefa32047e16246dd9bd0cd5c8d24 China GDP = dark blue; Mobile payment transactions = purple; In only 5 years, the transactions are 3x the GDP of China. This is an immense growth potential that SQ will be first in line to take in that growth. Competitors only for cash app? Venmo & Zelle"Cash App's rising performance is in part thanks to its ability to monetize its growing user base: It brought in $30 in annualized revenue per monthly active customer, excluding Bitcoin, in December 2019, up from less than $15 in December 2017, Ahuja said. However, the revenue gained from P2P transactions alone likely isn't enough to successfully monetize a platform — Cash App has managed to monetize from several services while some of its competitors have struggled to do so, strengthening Square's already important subscriptions and service-based revenue segment.“ Basically, this means that these companies are struggling to keep up with SQ because cashapp is incredibly quick to create new services for customers. Secondly, it is better to invest with SQ just because you access two different ecosystems. These two ecosystems can be combined, which will change the world and disrupt banks. Yes, Square will have to work with banks because of jurisdiction and regulations. But as the regulations ease up, SQ will depend less on banks."Fueled by the improving user metrics, June witnessed Cash App growth of 130% above April/May levels, indicating a steepening adoption curve. Cash App is a peer-to-peer mobile payment app developed by Square that now offers enhanced functionalities such as receipt of direct deposit payments, ACH payments, and stock and bitcoin trading. The recent momentum, according to the analyst, is tied to government stimulus payments and equity trading. "Cash App adoption related to these factors, among others, likely offer monetizable second-order benefits such as Cash Card and Instant Deposit adoption," Beck wrote in the note.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/squares-cash-app-growth-adoption-164046320.html Technical Analysis: https://preview.redd.it/mrc169uvcpd51.png?width=1213&format=png&auto=webp&s=068a65d4a696aa6b82c728e2dc11694754fd37c8 We see a wedge at the current price. It is stagnant at the moment because investors are waiting for earnings. If earnings are green, it will go break $134 resistance point. If earnings are bad, it will not break $100 strong support line. If you are looking for a short-term play, you can buy it now and expect a minimum of 10$ profit per share if earnings are good. If it is bad, I would say it will go down to $105 at the minimum (loss of around $20 per share) I believe the perfect entry price would be around $110 at the moment. My personal price target for 2022 is $375. Disclosure: **I hold a massive amount of ARKK. Planning to add SQ ASAP**
Century Pacific ups the Coco Wars ante against Axelum (Wednesday, August 20)
Happy Wednesday, Barkada --
The PSE closed up 88 points to 6157 ▲1.44%.
Thank you verneornitier for pat on the back, and to StefanJanobski for being a reader since before the lockdown. Remember those days? Back when it was possible to consider a packed restaurant or bar to be "great atmosphere"? That's how long they've been a reader! That seems like forever ago. Thanks also to Bien for the nice email, and to Mark for his approval of my puns. My puns! Compliments like that are going to make my hair wet... you know, because my head will get tubig.
MiddleClass ▼1.17% D30 Targets ▼0.12% Fast Food ▲0.02%
Main stories covered:
Century Pacific [CNPF 16.20 ▲1.50%] signs $50m contract with Linaco Group, a Malaysia coconut producer… the multi-year deal will expand the cooperation between the two companies that started two years ago, where CNPF produces white-label coconut products for Linaco Group, which Linaco Group then re-sells under its own branding/packaging. This is sometimes known as “contract manufacturing”, “white-label”, or “OEM” (original equipment manufacturer), but it all means the same thing: Company A makes the product and sells it to Company B, and Company B then sells the product to the public under Company B’s branding and packaging.
MB:CNPF is a recent entrant into the coconut business, but has done well for itself since doing so, supplying Vita Coco under a long-term contract, and branching out into several coconut product categories like desiccated coconut, virgin coconut oil, coconut flour, and coconut milk. CNPF appears to be the main competitor of Axelum Resources [AXLM 2.36 ▼0.84%], which recently revealed that it struggled to source coconuts during the ECQ lockdown and left many customer orders unfilled as a result of prioritizing “its most important customers”. CNPF did not make clear if it suffered from the same supply chain issues, with the underlying coconut market growing for both, it will be interesting to see how this emerging rivalry plays out.
Vantage Equities [V 1.12 ▲10.89%] profit ▲118% y/y… Q2/20 profit of P418m, up 118% from Q2/19 profit of P191m. V is an investment holding company that invests directly in stocks, bonds, and other companies. V owns a payments and remittances subsidiary that noted a 70% decrease in net income. V attributes this drop first to “stiff competition” in the remittance space, and second to the COVID pandemic. The other side of V’s business, the management of assets like stocks, bonds, or other securities, V said that it was “light already on equities” when the mid-March crash hit, so they were not impacted by the sell-off except in their mutual fund holdings. V said that their fixed income portfolio gains offset the losses from the mutual fund side, and then “were able to ride out the volatility and are now booking gains from the fixed income portfolio.”
MB: *Referring to COVID specifically, V says that it expects “assets under management to remain at these levels until there is a cure for COVID19 and we see a recovery in economic growth.” V is referring to the 6000-level of the PSE when they talk about “these levels”. Even more interestingly, V says that “with rising cases and a failure to contain the spread of the virus, there is a risk that asset prices may fall back to their lows.” V is referring to the 4500-to-5000 level when they talk about prices falling “back to their lows.” That’s something to keep an eye on. TL;DR: The market is sideways until we have a vaccine, unless virus spread continues unconstrained. Then we’ll re-test those scary lows. *
MB (1):Ok ok ok... for any of my new subscribers who were not around to read my take on V's Q1 results, you missed out on the best paragraph of MDA text that I've ever read, wherein V summarized the absolute insanity that was the social and economic context for everything that happened in Q1. It's worth a re-read so for your reading pleasure I've included it below. I just wish they'd have continued the post-apocalyptic fanfic into Q2... "The start of 2020 was not auspicious at all as first, markets were put into turmoil when Trump killed an Iranian general in a drone strike. Oil spikes 5% and USD/PHP goes from 50.60 to 51.20. Next was the Taal Volcano eruption, closing down cities as far as NCR. All of this happened in January. Also we get the first reports of a killer virus in Wuhan. This eventually spreads from China to all over the world, eventually sending the globe into lockdown. As the coronavirus spreads, US Treasury yields start falling. From around 1.8%, the 10y UST hits a low of 0.318% before eventually settling around 0.50%. The 30y UST yield hits below 1%, the first time in recorded history. Equity markets fall 3%, the worst declines since the Great Depression. The Fed has to go into crisis management and swiftly announces it will do everything to support the economy. They slash interest rates by 1%, essentially driving rates down to zero. It also promises unlimited asset purchases, with a wide scope of bonds that it can purchase, including MUNI bonds and junk bonds. Here in the Philippines NCR and Luzon is put under lockdown, with business grinding to a halt. After closing for a few days, PSE reopens and is promptly down 20% to 4000 but eventually recovers some of its losses. As liquidity becomes scarce, fixed income markets are hit hard, with banks seen liquidating their holdings. From trading at 3.125%, the benchmark 10-64 was sold to as high as 5.575 before BSP calmed markets by announcing its own bond buyback program. BSP also promptly cuts 50bp in an unscheduled meeting, and cuts RRR by 200bp. The 10-64 and bonds across the curve start being bought, with the yield down to 4.7%."
Rockwell Land [ROCK 1.55 ▲1.97%] profit ▼108% y/y… Q2/20 loss of P47m, down 108% from Q2/19 profit of P564m. Remind me if you’ve heard the one about the Manila-based real estate developer with hotel interests that had a bad time during the pandemic and lockdown. Anyway, ROCK is not particularly different from its peers in that it suffered downturns in its residential and commercial segments, but it is also worth noting that ROCK’s hotel segment was crushed by the virus and managed to turn in a P7m net loss for the quarter.
MB:The company is not in any danger, as it just concluded a P1.68bn buy-back of its seven-year bonds under a buy-back program it started 6 weeks ago. Though it’s clear that ROCK’s NCR-heavy focus, and consumption-heavy focus (hotels, cinemas, malls) hurt the company in ways that other firms which were more geographically diversified and socio-economically diversified were not.
ABS-CBN [ABS 7.25 ▼1.36%] unable to file Q1 and Q2 earnings reports on time… the ex-top broadcaster, owned by the Lopez Family and denied legislative renewal of its broadcast franchise by the… by Congress, disclosed yesterday that the non-renewal caused ABS’s auditor to request additional documents and extend the length of its audit. This, according to ABS, has put ABS in a position to miss the filing deadline for those quarters without incurring “unreasonable effort or expense”.
MB:Despite being railroaded out of domestic broadcasting and clearly still trying to administratively come to grips with the implications of that, ABS appears to be pivoting hard to digital, and… having some success? ABS just passed the 10 million subscriber mark for its YouTube channel, which is still the most-subscribed domestic news channel. No investor should expect some kind of Christmas Miracle here, though, as this is not like some 80s movie where a quick montage and some fighting spirit will replace the gaping hole in ABS’s revenues with an upstart digital presence. Revenue growth here will take time… and it comes with certain risks, such as how GMA’s Youtube channel was hacked yesterday to display “SpaceX Live” as its channel title and a scam bitcoin giveaway as its top video.
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